Brussels
Article originally published in Global Risks Insight: Know Your World
Brussels, the
capital of Belgium and the European Union is experiencing some immediate economic
effects resulting from recent terror threats in 2015. This city’s experience
may prove to be a blueprint for other cities in 2016.
Following the deadly terrorist attacks that shocked France
and the world on November 13th, 2015, the global attention
turned to Brussels as the majority of the Islamist militants that took part in
the French massacre had links to the European capital.
In addition, in late November Belgian authorities
temporarily raised the terrorist threat level to its highest tier given the
presence of a reportedly imminent terrorist threat.
This led to substantial disruptions in the capital in what
came to be defined as “Brussels Lockdown”. The terrorist threat again came as
an obstacle to the normal life of Brussels’ residents when authorities banned
all public New Year’s Eve festivities on December 31st because
of a reported plan to carry out an attack in the capital.
This prolonged state of insecurity has had a negative impact
on the economic and social life of the capital. Since November 2015, Brussels,
along with other European capitals, has been experiencing first-hand the cost
of terror.
The most overt statistics pertaining to touristic activities, social
outings and public gatherings show a general change in the perception of the
city and overall evolution in the local mood.
Throughout the duration of the “Brussels Lockdown”,
thousands of travelers planning to reach the capital canceled their flights.
At the highest point of this trend, more than 2,000 flight cancellations were
recorded on November 25th.
While this push to avoid Brussels slowly
stopped after the terrorist threat level was lowered, there were on average
6,000 flights per day to Brussels in early December 2015, approximately 1,500
less than in the same period of 2014.
A similar trend has been verified for the overall occupation
rate of hotels in the capital. In early December, approximately 55% of
Brussels’ hotel rooms were occupied against more than 73% during the same
period of 2014.
Ubiquitous precautions
This situation had a direct impact on the economic and
social life of the European capital throughout the Christmas and New Year’s
festivities. The annual Christmas market organized and held in the historical
center of Brussels has experienced a drop in attendance of more than 30%.
In addition, New Year’s Eve saw a major drop in demand for restaurant bookings
and, as such, at least one out of every two restaurants in the
capital closed their doors on the last night of 2015.
The aforementioned statistics are only an initial effect of
the impact that the emergence of a new terror threat is having on western
European economies.
The Belgian example is noteworthy as local security and
intelligence agencies have so far been successful in countering the threat
posed by Islamist militants, and no major mass-casualty attack has occurred in
the country.
However, the enhanced presence of military personnel in the
streets of Brussels, as well as the ongoing discourse over the current will of
terrorist organizations to target the capital, led to a mood change among the
local population.
The fear of potential attacks is playing as a long-term obstacle
to private expenditures, tourism and the participation in major public social
events.
As such, beyond the immediate security concerns raised by
the risk of terrorist attacks, public officials face the need to adapt the
ongoing counter-terrorism strategy in order not to hinder the socio-economic
life of western European countries.